Markov Chain-based Cost-Optimal Control Charts for Healthcare Data

Control charts have traditionally been used in industrial statistics, but are constantly seeing new areas of application, especially in the age of Industry 4.0. This paper introduces a new method, which is suitable for applications in the healthcare sector, especially for monitoring a health-characteristic of a patient. We adapt a Markov chain-based approach and develop a method in which not only the shift size (i.e. the degradation of the patient's health) can be random, but the effect of the repair (i.e. treatment) and time between samplings (i.e. visits) too. This means that we do not use many often-present assumptions which are usually not applicable for medical treatments. The average cost of the protocol, which is determined by the time between samplings and the control limit, can be estimated using the stationary distribution of the Markov chain. Furthermore, we incorporate the standard deviation of the cost into the optimisation procedure, which is often very important from a process control viewpoint. The sensitivity of the optimal parameters and the resulting average cost and cost standard deviation on different parameter values is investigated. We demonstrate the usefulness of the approach for real-life data of patients treated in Hungary: namely the monitoring of cholesterol level of patients with cardiovascular event risk. The results showed that the optimal parameters from our approach can be somewhat different from the original medical parameters

On the Alexandrov Topology of sub-Lorentzian Manifolds

It is commonly known that in Riemannian and sub-Riemannian Geometry, the metric tensor on a manifold defines a distance function. In Lorentzian Geometry, instead of a distance function it provides causal relations and the Lorentzian time-separation function. Both lead to the definition of the Alexandrov topology, which is linked to the property of strong causality of a space-time. We studied three possible ways to define the Alexandrov topology on sub-Lorentzian manifolds, which usually give different topologies, but agree in the Lorentzian case. We investigated their relationships to each other and the manifold's original topology and their link to causality.Comment: 20 page

Development of satiating and palatable high-protein meat products by using experimental design in food technology

Background and objectives: Foods high in protein are known to satiate more fully than foods high in other constituents. One challenge with these types of food is the degree of palatability. This study was aimed at developing the frankfurter style of sausages that would regulate food intake as well as being the preferred food choice of the consumer. Design and measures: 16 sausage varieties with commercial (PE% 20) or higher amount of protein (PE% 40), being modified with vegetable fat (3% of rapeseed oil), and smoked or not, underwent a sensory descriptive analysis, in which the information was used to choose a subsample of four sausages for a satiety test. Twenty-seven subjects were recruited based on liking and frequency of sausage consumption. The participants ranged in age from 20 to 28, and in body mass index (BMI) between 19.6 and 30.9. The students were served a sausage meal for five consecutive days and then filled out a questionnaire to describe their feelings of hunger, satiety, fullness, desire to eat an their prospective consumption on a visual analogue scale (VAS) starting from right before, right after the meal, every half hour for 4 h until the next meal was served, and right after the second meal. Results and conclusion: The higher protein sausages were less juicy, oily, fatty, adhesive, but harder and more granular than with lower amount of protein. The high-protein sausages were perceived as more satiating the first 90 min after the first meal. Some indication of satiety effect of added oil versus meat fat. No significant differences in liking among the four sausage varieties

Improved model identification for non-linear systems using a random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach

In non-linear system identification, the available observed data are conventionally partitioned into two parts: the training data that are used for model identification and the test data that are used for model performance testing. This sort of 'hold-out' or 'split-sample' data partitioning method is convenient and the associated model identification procedure is in general easy to implement. The resultant model obtained from such a once-partitioned single training dataset, however, may occasionally lack robustness and generalisation to represent future unseen data, because the performance of the identified model may be highly dependent on how the data partition is made. To overcome the drawback of the hold-out data partitioning method, this study presents a new random subsampling and multifold modelling (RSMM) approach to produce less biased or preferably unbiased models. The basic idea and the associated procedure are as follows. First, generate K training datasets (and also K validation datasets), using a K-fold random subsampling method. Secondly, detect significant model terms and identify a common model structure that fits all the K datasets using a new proposed common model selection approach, called the multiple orthogonal search algorithm. Finally, estimate and refine the model parameters for the identified common-structured model using a multifold parameter estimation method. The proposed method can produce robust models with better generalisation performance

Optimisation of CH4 and CO2 conversion and selectivity of H2 and CO for the dry reforming of methane by a microwave plasma technique using a Box–Behnken design

A microwave plasma was generated by N2 gas. Synthesis gases (H2 and CO) were produced by the interaction of CH4 and CO2 under plasma conditions at atmospheric pressure. The experimental pilot plant was set up, and the gases were sampled and analysed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. The Box–Behnken design (BBD) method was used to find the optimising conditions based on the experimental results. The response surface methodology based on a three-parameter and three-level BBD has been developed to find the effects of independent process parameters, which were represented by the gas flow rates of CH4, CO2, and N2 and their effects on the process performance in terms of CH4, CO2, and N2 conversion and selectivity of H2 and CO. In this work, four models based on quadratic polynomial regression have been determined to understand the connection between the limits of the feed gas flow rate and the performance of the process. The results show that the most important factor influencing the CO2, CH4, and N2 conversion and the selectivity of H2 and CO was “CO2 feed gas flow rate.” At the maximum desirable value of 0.92, the optimum CH4, CO2, and N2 conversion were 84.91%, 44.40%, and 3.37%, respectively, and the selectivities of H2 and CO were 51.31% and 61.17%, respectively. This was achieved at a gas feed flow rate of 0.19, 0.38, and 1.49 L min-1 for CH4, CO2, and N2, respectively

Effects of ecstasy/polydrug use on memory for associative information

Rationale Associative learning underpins behaviours that are fundamental to the everyday functioning of the individual. Evidence pointing to learning deficits in recreational drug users merits further examination. Objectives A word pair learning task was administered to examine associative learning processes in ecstasy/polydrug users. Methods After assignment to either single or divided attention conditions, 44 ecstasy/polydrug users and 48 non-users were presented with 80 word pairs at encoding. Following this, four types of stimuli were presented at the recognition phase: the words as originally paired (old pairs), previously presented words in different pairings (conjunction pairs), old words paired with new words, and pairs of new words (not presented previously). The task was to identify which of the stimuli were intact old pairs. Results Ecstasy/ploydrug users produced significantly more false-positive responses overall compared to non-users. Increased long-term frequency of ecstasy use was positively associated with the propensity to produce false-positive responses. It was also associated with a more liberal signal detection theory decision criterion value. Measures of long term and recent cannabis use were also associated with these same word pair learning outcome measures. Conjunction word pairs, irrespective of drug use, generated the highest level of false-positive responses and significantly more false-positive responses were made in the divided attention condition compared to the single attention condition. Conclusions Overall, the results suggest that long-term ecstasy exposure may induce a deficit in associative learning and this may be in part a consequence of users adopting a more liberal decision criterion value